Gold’s bullish momentum, which lifted prices to record highs earlier this month, has started to crack under pressure. Former President Donald Trump’s efforts to ease global tensions—particularly between Russia and Ukraine—and his decision to suspend additional tariffs have dampened traditional safe-haven demand. Consequently, gold prices have pulled back sharply, declining over 2,000 points from recent peaks.

As the market adjusts to this new narrative, all eyes are on whether gold can hold critical support levels or whether the pullback could deepen toward the $3200 threshold. Here’s a full breakdown of how XAUUSD could perform between April 28th and May 2nd.

Fundamental Drivers: Key U.S. Economic Events on the Radar

This week brings a series of heavyweight U.S. economic reports that could steer gold’s next big move. On Tuesday, the JOLTS job openings report will test the market’s faith in labor market strength. Robust openings would validate Fed hawkishness and strengthen the U.S. dollar, thereby capping gold’s upside potential.

GDP growth numbers on Wednesday could also be pivotal. Strong GDP and rising employment costs would reinforce inflation concerns, sparking turbulence in traditional markets and complicating gold’s path forward.

By Thursday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI and unemployment claims data will either confirm economic resilience or signal emerging weaknesses. Lastly, Friday’s NFP report could either reignite gold’s safe-haven bid or extend its current decline, depending on the health of the U.S. jobs market.

New Geopolitical Threats Could Reignite Bullish Gold Sentiment

While peace talks in Eastern Europe offer hope, tensions are escalating elsewhere. India and Pakistan are on the brink of conflict following violence in Kashmir. With Indian households being massive gold holders—far exceeding even the largest central banks—any escalation could trigger a surge in physical gold demand, offering an important bullish counterweight to current market headwinds.

Technical Overview: Bears Take the Lead, But Bulls Aren’t Out Yet

Technically, gold’s recent weekly close formed a bearish pattern, suggesting the correction may not be over. The metal failed to post a higher high, and Fibonacci retracement analysis shows clear vulnerabilities.

Gold initially bounced off the 0.236 retracement but now appears on track to test the 0.382 retracement around $3154, a critical zone for buyers. A clean break below that level would significantly weaken the bullish case, opening the door for a retest of $3000.

Short-Term Gold Price Forecast and Trade Zones

Short-term charts highlight key battlefields. Support between $3247 and $3193 remains intact for now, with the $3226 POC acting as an anchor for potential rebounds. However, if bears break this zone, the next defensive stronghold lies at $3165–$3124.

Meanwhile, selling pressure is likely to intensify between $3342 and $3353 if gold fails to sustain above $3260 on lower timeframes. Traders need to watch these levels carefully to capitalize on momentum shifts.

Conclusion: Strategic Patience Needed as Gold Tests Critical Supports

Traders should approach the market cautiously, favoring buys at major support zones while being prepared to short gold at minor resistance levels. Strong buying interest is likely near $3245 and $3165, while sellers will likely dominate near $3342–$3353.

In the bigger picture, despite the near-term bearishness, gold’s long-term fundamentals remain intact. Global economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions will continue to support gold demand even if prices dip further in the short term. Staying nimble and data-driven will be crucial for navigating the week ahead.