Quantum Researchers Launch High-Stakes Bitcoin Decryption Challenge

On April 16, 2025, Project 11, a leader in quantum technology development, introduced the Q-Day Prize — a challenge offering 1 BTC to anyone who can crack part of a simulated Bitcoin cryptographic key using a quantum computer. Entrants have until April 5, 2026 to submit their solutions.

Understanding the Purpose Behind the Challenge

Quantum computers are poised to outperform classical systems in complex tasks, particularly in breaking encryption. According to Project 11, their goal isn’t to compromise Bitcoin’s integrity, but to test, understand, and ultimately defend it before quantum threats become mainstream.

Bitcoin relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), which experts say is susceptible to quantum attacks through Shor’s algorithm. Project 11 wants to estimate this risk and develop protections in time — aiming to protect an estimated six million BTC from future compromise.

Breaking a Full Key? Not the Point

The challenge doesn’t expect participants to break a real 256-bit key. Instead, they’ve offered “toy” versions ranging from 1 to 25 bits. The hope is to benchmark quantum performance. Even minor breakthroughs, like cracking a 3-bit key with real quantum hardware, would offer valuable insights.

Emphasizing Openness and Scientific Rigor

Project 11 is promoting transparency. In their words:

“Quantum disruption is coming. Rather than wait for surprises, we believe in rigorous, public benchmarking to measure the real scope of this threat.”

All attempts will be visible to the public, ensuring the challenge remains open, accountable, and informative for researchers and industry stakeholders alike.

How Close Are We to a Real Threat?

Today, no quantum machine has successfully broken ECC — but the race is on. Institutions like NIST are already advancing post-quantum cryptography, and many crypto wallets are now branding themselves as “quantum-resistant.”

Experts believe ECC encryption could fall once machines reach 2,000 qubits. For now, current systems are limited: Google’s “Willow” chip has 105 qubits, IBM’s “Heron” runs at 150, and QuEra’s analog system reportedly hits 256.

Industry Experts Are Divided

Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, believes we’ll migrate to quantum-proof systems in time — but acknowledges dormant wallets, including Satoshi’s, could become vulnerable. Meanwhile, Telos Blockchain’s John Lilic suggests quantum tools could restore lost wallets to rightful owners.

Estimates suggest the crypto community has until 2030–2050 to act. But the clock is ticking — and Project 11’s challenge is a bold first move toward readiness.