Despite persistent price turbulence, Ethereum’s long-term holders are quietly ramping up their exposure, lowering their cost basis and reinforcing belief in ETH’s long-term value—even as the broader market remains on edge.

Ethereum’s pullback from its December 2024 high of $4,107 to lows under $1,900 hasn’t shaken seasoned investors. In fact, data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows these long-term participants are accumulating more ETH, particularly since March 10, when the price slipped to $1,866.70.

These “accumulating addresses,” defined as those who steadily increase their holdings without major selling activity, are classified as long-term holders (LTHs) due to their average holding duration of over 155 days.

Since the March dip, this group has lowered their average realized price from $2,026 to $1,980, showing they’ve been actively buying at a loss to average down. During the same period, their cumulative ETH holdings grew from 15.54 million to 19.04 million ETH—a 22.5% increase that signals clear conviction in Ethereum’s future potential.

ETH Struggles Under Key Resistance as Market Watches $1,799 Zone

Price-wise, Ethereum remains rangebound. After hitting a local high of $1,873 on May 3, ETH failed to hold momentum and slipped below $1,820, testing support in the $1,772–$1,824 zone. This area is critical—not only due to technical chart formations but because 4.5 million addresses collectively acquired 6.36 million ETH here, anchoring a psychological and behavioral support level with an average cost of around $1,799.

A breach below this band could spell deeper downside, with limited historical buy activity below $1,772. In such a case, analysts say Ethereum could retrace to $1,500, a level that lacks dense buyer clusters and could result in more volatile selling.

On the technical front, Ethereum is trading below the 100-hour SMA, with a weakening MACD and RSI under 50—both signals of fading short-term strength.

Technical Setup Suggests Breakout Still Possible — But It Needs a Spark

Despite bearish short-term sentiment, some analysts argue Ethereum is setting up for a rebound. According to Michaël van de Poppe, ETH is consolidating within a falling wedge, a pattern often preceding bullish breakouts. Van de Poppe believes Ethereum could soon rally sharply if it reclaims $1,840 and breaks through the next resistance at $1,880.

This optimism is underpinned by broader market expectations for Ethereum’s development roadmap. Following the Dencun upgrade, attention has shifted toward Ethereum’s push for scalability and improved throughput via Layer 2 ecosystems, rollups, and protocol optimization.

In parallel, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s 2025 roadmap, which includes long-term scalability improvements and economic refinements, has given long-term holders a reason to hold—and accumulate.

The accumulation behavior by LTHs reflects this optimism. These investors appear to be playing the long game, weathering short-term volatility with a strategic focus on where Ethereum could be headed in the next major market cycle.

In summary, Ethereum’s short-term chart may look shaky, but on-chain metrics are flashing signs of deep, structural confidence. Whether this is the calm before a breakout or just a pause before another correction depends on market catalysts—but one thing is clear: smart money isn’t just holding. It’s buying.