Solana’s recent bounce has stalled at a critical resistance zone, and the next move could define its short-term trajectory.
Solana (SOL) has staged an impressive bounce after dipping below the $100 level, reclaiming key short-term support and rallying toward a critical resistance area. However, the move is now facing a strong ceiling near $149, where several technical indicators converge — and the market appears hesitant to push higher.
Clustered Resistance Near POC, VWAP, and Fib Level
At the heart of Solana’s current stall is the $149 region, a point of control (POC) that represents the most traded price since early 2024. This level is further reinforced by the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) from the yearly open and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing high to low.
This dense confluence zone serves as a make-or-break region, and current price behavior suggests sellers are defending it aggressively.
Low Volume Bounce Points to Fragile Momentum
Despite bouncing from sub-$100 support, Solana’s price advance has been accompanied by diminishing volume, a technical red flag for trend strength. The lack of commitment from buyers indicates the rally may be losing steam, rather than gearing up for a breakout.
So far, Solana has failed to break through the resistance with any authority, and the rejection wicks on intraday charts are starting to mount. Without a surge in momentum, the rally risks stalling and reversing.
Potential Downside: $113 and $100 Levels at Risk
If rejection from this zone intensifies, the price could rotate back toward $113, the value area low — a previously held support area. Failure to hold there could expose SOL to a retest of $100, a psychological and technical support that may not hold on a second attempt.
Should this level break with volume, the structure may turn decisively bearish, setting up a possible new low within this macro range.
Bullish Breakout Requires Reclaim of $149
For bulls to regain control, Solana needs to close above $149 and hold it as support. This would invalidate the current bearish thesis and pave the way toward the next major target at $209, representing a return to the upper bounds of the established range.
Until that happens, caution remains warranted.
Conclusion: Bears Gain Edge Unless $149 Is Broken
Solana sits at a pivotal junction. The confluence-heavy $149 resistance is acting as a lid on upward momentum, and early signs point to weakness. Unless bulls can reclaim this zone decisively, the path of least resistance remains down, with $113 and $100 the next key levels.
Traders should monitor volume and short-term structure for confirmation. For now, the bias leans cautiously bearish, with $149 as the key pivot.
