Recession fears just went through the roof—at least if you ask the folks on Polymarket, the popular crypto-based prediction platform.

As of April 3, 47% of users are betting that the U.S. will enter a recession this year. That’s more than double the odds back in January, and way up from 33% just last week.

The Trigger? Trump’s Tariffs

After Trump’s fiery “Liberation Day” speech on April 2, where he dropped a massive new set of tariffs on imports, markets freaked out—and so did recession watchers.

“Our country has been pillaged… our workers have suffered,” Trump declared, defending the aggressive new trade barriers as a way to bring back U.S. manufacturing.

But not everyone’s convinced. The markets certainly weren’t.

Markets in Freefall, Costs Set to Rise

Here’s what happened the next day:

• Dow dropped 1,300 points
  
• Nasdaq fell over 4%
  
• S&P 500 tanked 3.3%
  

And economists? They’re waving red flags. A Yale University report predicts the average American household could see $2,700–$3,400 more in yearly expenses due to rising costs on imported goods.

Is It a Bold Play or a Dangerous One?

Trump says the short-term pain is worth it to rebuild American industries. But nearly half of Polymarket users now think a recession is coming, and fast.

It’s still too early to say whether this gamble pays off—or ends with an economic slide. But one thing’s clear: investors are spooked, and fear is rising.